Xi Jinping can’t afford for Russia to make peace in Ukraine
China is treating the conflict as a proxy war, to wear down Moscow and Washington in advance of an invasion of Taiwan
onald Trump continues to ratchet up the pressure on Russia, in advance of a new deadline for Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire by the end of this week. The US is now imposing an additional 25 per cent tariff on India, as punishment for buying Russian oil. Trump has directly responded to dark warnings of nuclear war from former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, repositioning two nuclear submarines to counter the threat. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, was again in Moscow on Wednesday for talks with the Kremlin, and now the US and Russian presidents could meet as early as next week.
In other words, Trump is testing various tools to bring peace to Ukraine. Will any of them work? We shall soon find out. But there are now strong indications that his Art of the Deal with Russia could be derailed – by China.
What the president and his advisers perhaps haven’t factored into their Russia strategy is that China believes it is a winner from the war in Ukraine and is therefore highly motivated to continue its military assistance to Moscow. Just as the US and Europe are engaged in a proxy conflict with Russia by supplying military hardware and funding to Ukraine – in order to weaken the Russian military and economy, as former US defence secretary Lloyd Austin admitted in 2022 – China is waging its own proxy war against the US by propping up Moscow.
Having abstained from sending fully-assembled weapon systems to Russia, to avoid Washington’s ire, Beijing has been supplying Russia with dual use technology used to manufacture military hardware – all while maintaining a thin veil of deniability. These critical components include microelectronics, optics for tanks, satellite sensors, navigation equipment and the like and are sold by China to Russia overtly through state-owned enterprises or covertly via front companies, ostensibly for civilian use. In reality, they enhance Russia’s combat capabilities, enabling Moscow to fight a protracted war of attrition in Ukraine.
China is waging its own proxy war against the US by propping up Moscow Credit: Pool Reurers
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