German researcher: Trump will be re-elected with a probability of 91 percent
"It's a déjà vu experience," said Norpoth in an interview with ntv. Contrary to the poll results, in which Hillary Clinton was leading, he had already predicted Trump's victory in 2016. With his model, he had always had the right result in advance since 1996.
At the moment, all polls see the democratic candidate Joe Biden well ahead of incumbent Trump. But Norpoth doesn't think much of them.
“Surveys actually need a warning like on cigarette packs: 'Warning: the forecast value of this survey corresponds to that of a coin toss. Do not rely on it. '”And because of the Corona crisis, he does not see any forecast value in them this year.
“Election campaign under lockdown”
The election campaign itself is under a lockdown. “Trump cannot campaign like four years ago: with many meetings and appearances. The attempt in Tulsa went wrong. And Biden is almost completely absent as a candidate. He is sitting in the basement of his house. The actual election campaign has not yet started,” he told the news portal.
Many well-known media had already ignored his forecasts in 2016. This time, too, he mainly received requests from the media who wanted to hear his predictions.
The situation is quite similar with the Democrats: “The Democrats are already on their minds, they are worried about the Congress. Trump has been determined for her as a loser and is already done for her. My warnings are considered academic spinning,” says the political scientist who comes from Germany but lives in the USA.
The election campaign itself is under a lockdown. “Trump cannot campaign like four years ago: with many meetings and appearances. The attempt in Tulsa went wrong. And Biden is almost completely absent as a candidate. He is sitting in the basement of his house. The actual election campaign has not yet started,” he told the news portal.
Many well-known media had already ignored his forecasts in 2016. This time, too, he mainly received requests from the media who wanted to hear his predictions.
The situation is quite similar with the Democrats: “The Democrats are already on their minds, they are worried about the Congress. Trump has been determined for her as a loser and is already done for her. My warnings are considered academic spinning,” says the political scientist who comes from Germany but lives in the USA.
“He's a good show, he's a farmer”
Nevertheless, his forecasts are not to be equated with support, he says. When asked how he explained the wide support for a man who is mostly perceived in Europe as an uneducated, empathetic narcissist, Norpoth says: “For me, Trump's success is mainly rooted in his role as the host of the reality TV show 'The Apprentice '. That brought him into office, not the real estate agent or the businessman Trump.”
Source: Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland
Posts
