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Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt: Solar-Induced Cooling *this Decade* is our only hope against Dangerous CO2-Reducing Policies

Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt holds a doctorate in chemistry.

He began his professional career at the Federal Environmental Agency in Berlin before joining the Hessian Ministry of the Environment. From 1984 until 1990 he served as state secretary for environment, from 1991 till 1997 as minister for energy and environment in the state of Hamburg. He is also the author of several environmental books; the bestseller “Seveso ist überall” (“Seveso is everywhere”) was one of the most influential books for the green environmental movement in Germany.

In 2012, Vahrenholt together with geologist Sebastian Lüning published Die kalte Sonne: warum die Klimakatastrophe nicht stattfindet (The Cold Sun: Why the Climate Crisis Isn’t Happening), a book asserting that climate change is driven by variations in solar activity. The pair predict the Earth is entering a cooling phase due to periodic solar cycles. Other contributors to the book include Nir Shaviv, Werner Weber, Henrik Svensmark and Nicola Scafetta.

Prof. Vahrenholt provides a monthly summary of the climate on his website Below are a few exerts and paraphrasings from May 2021’s edition:

The deviation of the global mean temperature of the satellite-based measurements from the average for the years 1991-2020 decreased further to -0.05 degrees Celsius in April 2021:

The recent La Niña is still having a cooling impact. NOAA says there is an 80% chance that La Niña will end between May and July; however, the agency is expecting a new one to start again in the fall. Latest real-world observations (one dataset shown below) reveal that the climate models –on which the recommendations of the IPCC are based– are coming out twice as warm as the reality, on average:
This blatant deviation from the real temperature development is politically significant because the prognoses of the models are used as the basis for far-reaching decisions, such as constitutional court judgments.

A recent German court hearing found on the fundamentals of climate change:

There is an approximately linear relationship between the total amount of greenhouse gases emitted and the increase in mean surface temperature (Section 19). Without additional measures to combat climate change, a global temperature increase of more than 3 ° C by the year 2100 is currently considered likely.

But here, continues Vahrenholt, the court ignores the considerable uncertainties about feedback effects, such as clouds. In describing the “actual principles of climate change” and the “actual principles of climate protection,” the court refers to just four sources, with the IPCC being the main one.

So-called tipping point processes in the climate system are seen as a particular danger to ecological stability, because they can have far-reaching environmental effects. Tilting elements are parts of the earth system that are of particular importance for the global climate and that change abruptly and often irreversibly as the load increases. Examples are the permafrost soils in Siberia and North America, the ice masses in the polar zones, the Amazon rainforest and significant air and ocean current systems.

The judges had obviously not read the FAZ interview with Jochem Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute in Hamburg: When asked by FAZ, “Which tipping point worries you most?” Marotske replied, “None.”

And then, when it came to ‘extreme weather events,’ the court again failed to deal in facts, claiming:

"The increase in drought and drought observed in Germany is considered a particular challenge. The associated drying out of the soil is particularly important for agriculture…"

Even the German Meteorological Service had declared in 2018 –as the IPCC did in 2013– that it was difficult to statistically prove an increase in extreme weather events — this also applies to worldwide droughts, heavy rain events, hurricanes and tornadoes.

To refute the court’s claim, Vahrenholt provides a graphic depicting summer rainfall in Germany:

The summer rain in Germany is subject to strong fluctuations, but there is no long-term trend. The amount of precipitation in summer has not changed statistically significantly over the past 135 years (source). And while the summer data comfortably refutes the court’s assumptions, the winter rainfall data tears it apart:

Read more here: Electroverse
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