Orbán can hope for re-election

The war in the neighboring country puts a strain on the election campaign in Hungary. Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, there has been great nervousness among Magyars, who are still suffering from Soviet trauma three decades after the end of the Eastern bloc. They are afraid of the Russians. And a few days after the attack, a massive influx of refugees of more than 100,000 Ukrainians came into the country.

For Viktor Orbán, Vladimir Putin's war could destroy election prospects, the opposition thought. The right-wing conservative Prime Minister, who has been in office since 2010, had sought Putin's proximity more than others. He had advocated good political and business connections and was able to negotiate extremely cheap natural gas supply contracts in favor of Hungary. The opposition alliance around the challenger Péter Márki-Zay hoped that his proximity to the Kremlin boss could be his undoing. He blamed Orbán as a "warmonger" for Ukraine's failure to become a member of NATO.

However, new polls show that most Hungarians believe that the Fidesz leader has hit the right note since the illegal attack on Ukraine. The 58-year-old has condemned Putin's war and endorsed EU sanctions. At the same time, he definitely wants to prevent Hungary from being drawn into the war. According to a survey for the think tank Századvég, 90 percent agree that there is no more important goal for Hungary than to stay out of the conflict. Orbán is seen as a guarantor of stability. Many also share his stance against allowing any arms transports through Hungary.

Hungarians want their peace
The parliamentary elections in Hungary on April 3, ie in just over two weeks, are of great symbolic importance for the entire EU. In Brussels they keep their fingers crossed for the opposition; the right-wing conservative Orbán, who opposed the immigration crisis in 2015, is hated by many there. The European People's Party (EPP), which also includes the CDU/CSU, threw out Orbán's Fidesz a year ago. Orbán stands for the nation, rejects a European superstate and uncontrolled immigration. That alone is considered an impertinence by many. Brussels points to deficiencies in the rule of law and therefore wants to cut EU funds.

The Vice President of the EU Parliament, Katarina Barley (SPD), calls Orbán "a dictator, even if it doesn't feel like it in everyday life". Orbán's critics denounce authoritarian governance and corruption. From the point of view of the left-liberal elites, Hungary's conservative family policy is also a horror, for which Orbán's 44-year-old ex-family minister Katalin Novák stands, who was elected Hungary's first female head of state last week. With this coup to nominate a young and competent woman, mother of three, five-language politician and dedicated conservative who is against gay marriage, Orbán has again scored plus points.

With five percentage points ahead
The governing Fidesz, in alliance with the small Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP), has been ahead in polls for several weeks - on average with around 49 percent, around five points more than the opposition. Concerns are spreading in the camp of Orbán's opponents. Until January, the motley Hungarian opposition alliance was in good spirits to oust Orbán from his prime minister's office in the Carmelite monastery on Budapest's Castle Hill. But their slight lead in polls has since melted away.

Six opposition parties had joined forces last year to nominate common candidates for the 106 constituencies that have a first-past-the-post system (the other 93 seats have proportional representation), which previously favored Fidesz. Four years ago, Fidesz had won a two-thirds majority of seats with 49 percent of the votes. This time it should be much tighter.

The "united opposition" is a heterogeneous alliance. It includes Socialists, Social Liberals, Liberals and Greens through to Jobbik, the far-right party once notorious for anti-Semitism scandals. Recently, however, it has been referred to in Brussels as the "centre-right" because it is needed for Orbán's replacement.

Péter Márki-Zay is the non-party lead candidate in the opposition alliance. The 50-year-old, sympathetic-looking business specialist and father of seven children has been the mayor of the small town of Hódmezővásárhely, which has almost 7,000 inhabitants, since 2018. The devout Catholic, who describes himself as conservative, is also said to be attractive to disappointed Fidesz voters. But Fidesz counters that Márki-Zay is just a straw man, a puppet of the socialists, who have fallen into disrepute since Ferenc Gyurcsány's notorious lying speech. Gyurcsány, the former prime minister, now heads the "Democratic Coalition", the strongest of the six opposition parties. On election posters, Fidesz portrays the challenger Márki-Zay as "Mini-Feri" in reference to the movie "Austin Powers".

During the election campaign, Fidesz made a wealth of socio-political promises. Orbán's party wants to mitigate inflation with price controls and frozen fuel prices. There is a tax bonus for families. Márki-Zay, on the other hand, made a few blunders. Not only did he describe Fidesz voters as "disabled," he also speculated about "Jews" in the ruling party. In front of the camera, he described his own alliance as an alliance of “liberals, communists, conservatives and fascists” – “where everyone can have their own world view”. This speech also raised eyebrows from sympathetic observers. Although Márki-Zay is said to be a breath of fresh air, according to polls he is well behind Orbán in popularity rankings. Even if the outcome of the election this time is likely to be much tighter than in 2018, Orbán's conservatives still have a good chance of re-election.

Source: Preußische Allgemeine Zeitung

Photo: BZ/Jan Mainka.