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Germany business association warns of the loss of five million jobs


Munich - The Bavarian Business Association (VBW) has warned of a massive loss of jobs in the event of a gas supply stop from Russia. The VBW predicted that around 5.6 million jobs could be cut for this reason.

According to the calculations, an import boycott of Russian gas would also reduce German economic output by 12.7 percent. Immediate abandonment of the raw material would hit the glass, iron and steel industries particularly hard: the losses in these sectors would be almost 50 percent.

German economy is dependent on imports
With an import rate of 89 percent, Germany is almost completely dependent on natural gas supplies, VBW points out. Imports are exclusively via pipelines. In 2021, Russia was by far the largest importer with a calorific value of 424 terawatt hours (TWh), followed by Norway with 275, the Netherlands with 82 and Belgium with 18 TWh.

There is a “constant decline” in domestic gas production in Germany. According to the VBW study, Germany urgently needs to open up new sources of funding in order to be more independent from other countries in the long term. However, the discovery, development and approval of new gas sources takes “at least three years”.

Association calls for departure from the coalition agreement
In addition, the issue calls for a departure from the coalition agreement because it does not provide for any new permits for oil and gas drilling beyond the framework operating permits already granted for the North and Baltic Seas, the association warns. A permanent increase in domestic production cannot be expected without entry into fracking technology in Germany and, above all, in the short term cannot make a significant contribution to compensating for the loss of Russian gas volumes.

In order to save energy, the VBW recommends reducing room temperatures in hotels, restaurants and private households by two degrees. If necessary, the savings in electricity generation could "even be enforced in the event of a crisis" according to a current draft law. The most important thing is to prevent the factories from shutting down.

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