Trump’s $2 Trillion Gulf Tour Backfire as Canada Finds Better Deal | Canada Ditches US?

 In this episode, we dig into: Why Canada feels compelled to slash its reliance on the U.S. for crude oil exports, How the Trans Mountain (TMX) pipeline expansion reshapes Canadian energy flows, Trump’s renewed tariff threats and potential consequences for U.S. refineries, Canada’s push to sell more oil to China and the broader global repercussions.

 

 Key Topics to Cover Background: Canada’s Historical Reliance on US Exports Alberta’s daily production (~4 million b/d) long targeted to U.S. refineries. Evolution from ~90% of oil exports going to the U.S. 

 

  Trans Mountain (TMX) Expansion & New Opportunities Capacity growth from ~300k to 890k b/d, cost (~34B CAD), and 12-year timeline. Strategic shift: direct pipeline to Pacific coast, enabling overseas shipments. Impact on WCS–WTI price differential, increased producer revenue. 

 

Chinese Demand & Early Signs of Diversification Shipments from Vancouver to Asia (esp. China) up sharply. ~51% of west coast barrels heading to China, Japan, Taiwan. Reducing the once ‘90%+ dependence’ on U.S. purchasers.

 

 Trump’s Tariff Policies & Canada’s Countermeasures Tariffs as high as 25–145% threatened on Canadian oil. Canada’s rhetorical “we’ll sell to China instead” stance—impact on US supply. How U.S. refineries risk losing cheap Canadian crude.

 

 Economic & Geo-Political Implications Oil export diversification enabling Canada’s budget surplus, narrower WCS discount. US refineries forced to pay more or face supply shortfalls. Canada’s new strategic posture: “Better global access means better bargaining power.”

 

 Parallel Changes in LNG Sector LNG Canada project (14 MT/year) further reducing reliance on US gas market. Consequences for North American natural gas prices and trade,

 

Environmental & Domestic Challenges Controversy: pipeline expansions vs. climate commitments. Local communities’ opposition, cost overruns, and high tariffs in pipeline usage.

 

 Future Outlook: US–Canada Energy Ties Will Canada fully break away from the US as a customer if tariffs rise? Potential shifts in the next 3–5 years; Asia’s role in sustaining Canada’s energy boom.

 

 

 

Source:  PPR Mundial