On packed suitcases
While the German public is paying attention to the "unaccompanied", "underage" "refugees" who have landed in Hanover as a harbinger of the next asylum resettlement, the next wave of migration to the German social system is forming in southeastern Europe. The opening of EU accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia is paving the way for channeling the continuing high migration pressure from the Western Balkans to Germany.
In the midst of the corona crisis, the EU ministers for Europe decided by video conference not to postpone accession negotiations with two Western Balkan countries. The other countries in the region - Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Montenegro - also have an “accession perspective”. What the Federal Foreign Minister celebrates as "encouragement" and "overdue recognition" of "reform achievements" is much more likely to draw the government's worry lines and sweat of fear on the forehead.
Because in the end it will hardly matter how intensely you have insisted on “reforms” in the rule of law and the fight against corruption, for which new bureaucratic monitoring bodies have been created for and how closely you want to look this time. Once started, the accession process will hardly be stopped, if necessary delayed.
The economic gap cannot bridge redistribution
The enormous social and economic disparity between the wealthy and welfare states of the north cannot bridge a redistribution at European level, and the cultural divide that the centuries-old Ottoman rule has drawn through the European south-east simply does not fill up EU membership. You could learn that from Bulgaria's admission.
The all-important question is therefore EU-wide freedom of movement for people and workers. This dogma, of which the EU cannot let go, contains the promise of facilitated migration in search of a better life; the governments of the countries concerned can expect the export of the poor, the frustrated and the hopeless, and their remittances from social transfers and income from work to their families back home to alleviate the social and economic pressures.
The most obvious temptation is to abuse the generous German asylum system. Those who are routinely rejected can stay in Germany for many months with tricks and lists, receive accommodation, care, pocket money and, last but not least, the coveted medical care. And if you anticipate a possible impending deportation through "voluntary departure", you can even collect financial "return assistance" yourself, which you can use again for your next entry.
Hundreds of thousands sit on packed suitcases
The open abuse has been known for years. Gypsies from the Roma people in particular liked to use the gap to get at least a warm winter quarters in Germany. In order to curb asylum abuse, which skyrocketed during the asylum crisis in 2015, “work visas” were finally issued to residents of the Western Balkans in a relaxed manner.
The number grew from year to year and almost tripled from 2015 to 2019 to 65,000. Family reunification visas are already being issued to an increasing extent. Even those who cannot find a job or are genuinely looking for it can quickly find their way into the social system via detours, for example as a pseudo self-employed person and a Hartz IV incrementer.
Hundreds of thousands sit on packed suitcases. Almost two hundred thousand applications have been made so far. Currently, visas are still issued for applications from November 2017 - what will become of the still unprocessed applications when the regulation expires in December is still open. The rush is sure to intensify by the end of the year. If Albania, North Macedonia and other Western Balkans join the EU, this will result in a storm surge. As long as freedom of movement applies, transitional regulations, as in previous accession procedures, will at best stretch the immigration pressure into the social systems, but will not be able to remove them.
That could give the final load to the German donkey
The advancement of the admission process for the Western Balkans is often justified with the growing involvement of China, which one does not want to leave its own EU “inner courtyard” to. This is certainly not wrong strategically. But China's expansion policy pays attention to the cost-return ratio for every investment. In the EU, on the other hand, the dogma stands above economic reason.
Already from earlier rounds of accession one could have concluded that deepening and enlarging the EU are not available at reasonable costs. The wider the group of members and the greater the economic and social differences, the less can be harmonized, the greater the independence of the individual members.
An EU that is supposed to encompass the whole of Europe can reasonably be little more than a free trade area. The British who prefer this concept have just left. Instead, they are preparing to expand the EU by a whole bunch of new members who will drive transfer redistribution and social migration to new, absurd heights. Even without the consequences of the Covid-19 crisis, this is a burden that could give the final load to the German donkey.
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