The Mediterranean renewal is close: The right can retake Italy from the left after 10 years
In the mainstream world press, which sympathizes with the globalist left, it is increasingly common to read in connection with the Italian parliamentary elections to be held on September 25 that a "political disaster" is approaching, as it seems more and more certain that the right-wing alliance will come to power. If the Italian left really loses in the party competition in a few weeks, Italy can certainly look forward to a completely renewed political era.
A period of emergency, a low point in public life, a stomach in the political sense
Those who read comprehensive assessments of the situation in connection with the Italian parliamentary elections at the end of September in the world press, which openly sympathizes with the left, may come across such and similar ominous signs and expressions. However, the demoralization experienced at the international level in connection with the election chances of the Italian centre-left, which is especially pro-war and pro-migrant, did not come out of thin air.
In the language of numbers, this means that according to the latest public opinion data, the patriotic Italian Brotherhood (FdI) stands at 24 percent, the anti-immigration Lega at 14.5 percent, while the conservative Hajrá, Italia (FI) stands at 10 percent, resulting in an almost 50 percent support. On the other hand, the Democratic Party (PD), which leads the center-left coalition, can claim 22 percent, the Five Star Movement (M5S) only 10 percent, and the left-wing party called the new Akcíó, even with goodwill, can claim a maximum of 5 percent.
All this, for the time being, appears to be very little to break the momentum of the right. The bleak picture emerging for the Italian and the international left is further enhanced by the fact that these poll data were not born suddenly, specifically linked to a political event, but have been trending along the same curve for many weeks now.
More than 50 million Italians are expected to go to the polls on September 25. This will be the first time that people over the age of 18 will be able to vote for members of the Senate in addition to the House of Representatives, as until now only voters over the age of 25 could participate in the awarding of seats in the upper house. According to the 2018 electoral reform, one-third of the mandates will be distributed among individual candidates, and two-thirds will be distributed using a proportional system based on the votes cast for the parties. According to the change introduced in 2020, the next parliament will have only 600 members instead of the previous 945. To enter, parties must exceed the three percent threshold, and party associations must exceed ten percent.
The advance of the Italian right can be explained basically along two reasons.
Poor crisis management
On the one hand, the left-wing political elite with a fundamentally "technocratic" approach handled the crises that have arisen in recent years and deeply affected various layers of Italian society in a particularly bad way.
It is worth noting that, despite the peak of the migration crisis in 2015, the Italian government, following the idea of an open society, allowed immigrants arriving from the Mediterranean Sea without any controls, regardless of the public safety and cultural consequences.
In addition, in connection with the health crisis caused by the 2020 coronavirus, numerous omissions that contributed to the wildfire spread of the virus were subsequently revealed. Over time, these bad crisis management strategies began to swell the popularity of right-wing parties outside the establishment, which have now become unavoidable actors in Italian politics.
For example, the Lega led by Matteo Salvini burst into politics with a 17 percent result in the 2018 Italian parliamentary elections after its establishment five years ago, and then gained such national popularity in the following year's European Parliament elections that its 34 percent result - which represented a voting base of 9 million – put him to the first place.
But there is also the example of Giorgia Meloni's hallmark Italian Brotherhood, whose history of development seen recently was also similar. As is known, in the last parliamentary elections the party finished in fifth place with only 4.8 percent.
Now, however, more and more polls conducted by different institutes expect the right-wing party to take first place.
It is particularly interesting that Meloni, who otherwise maintains a particularly good relationship with Viktor Orbán, would not only break a more than ten-year curse by becoming the country's right-wing prime minister again, but would also be able to make history by becoming the first female prime minister of the Mediterranean country.
Deteriorating economic situation
At the same time, in addition to bad crisis management strategies, the collapse of the left was also caused by the current deteriorating economic and energy situation related to the war.
As the survey of the EMG institute shows, six out of ten Italians are concerned, in addition to the country's economy, above all about their own financial situation, i.e.
the technocratic politics seen in the past half-year, similar to the one in Brussels, are rapidly losing popularity. As a result, it can be seen that the election will be won by the block that will be able to reassure the population regarding the ever-increasing utility costs and inflation during the campaign.
The political communication of this approach was brought up in his campaign by none other than Italy's former Minister of the Interior, Matteo Salvini, when he emphasized several times during the recently held prime ministerial candidate debate that it would not be beneficial if sanctions strengthened the war. In his argument, which is very similar to the Hungarian position, he said, among other things, that according to the economic and trade data, the sanctions imposed due to the conflict do not actually affect Moscow, and this should also be noticed in Brussels.
In the light of the figures reviewed, as well as knowledge of the election context, it is understandable why the international media is already sounding the alarm and talking about a serious political disaster approaching in Italy. After all, the formation of a possible right-wing government would certainly pose significant obstacles not only to the political elite who support immigration, but also to the bureaucrats in Brussels who have worked hand in hand with the Italian left until now to make Europe a federal malformation instead of a continent of strong nations. Not to mention that either Meloni or Salvini will become Italy's prime minister, given that both politicians have a great relationship with Viktor Orbán, the Rome-Budapest axis will be able to show unprecedented strength. And this could prove to be decisive for both countries in the upcoming discussions in Brussels.
Source: Kontra
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