Brandenburg election: SPD ahead of AfD / Greens and Left Party out
Potsdam - According to initial forecasts, the SPD has narrowly won the state election in Brandenburg. The party received around 31 percent. The AfD is close behind with around 30 percent. The BSW is clearly represented in the new state parliament with 13 percent. The CDU received 12 percent. The Greens are below the five percent hurdle. The Left Party and FDP are currently failing to clear the five percent hurdle. In Brandenburg, winning a direct mandate is enough to avoid the five percent hurdle. The FDP received less than one percent of the vote.
Projection 8 p.m. (ARD) - Gains and losses for the 2019 election
SPD: 30.7 percent (plus 4.5 percentage points)
AfD: 29.6 percent (plus 6.1 percentage points)
CDU: 12.1 percent (minus 3.5 percentage points)
BSW: 13.1 percent (plus 13.1 percentage points)
Left Party: 2.9 percent (minus 7.8 percentage points)
Greens: 4.6 percent (minus 6.2 percentage points)
Free Voters: 2.5 percent (minus 2.5 percentage points)
Others (including FDP): 4.3 percent
Voter turnout increased by 13 percentage points to 74 percent.
Most recently, a coalition of the SPD, CDU and Greens governed in Potsdam. Currently, there is only a majority for an alliance of the SPD and BSW with 46 of 88 seats in the state parliament. The AfD is expected to achieve a so-called blocking minority in the state parliament with 30 seats.
Clear voting differences between old and young
Pollsters have identified a clear difference between the age groups. The AfD was by far the strongest force among young voters, while the SPD triumphed among senior citizens.
How the parties react
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann spoke of a "strong polarization between the SPD and AfD". His party achieved the worst result since the state of Brandenburg was founded. "That is clearly a defeat today." The federal CDU played no role in the election campaign, he told ARD. CDU top candidate Jan Redmann also spoke of a "polarization" between the SPD and AfD, which the CDU suffered from. Overall, it was a "bitter evening for Brandenburg" because 45 percent voted for the "political fringes".
In her initial reaction, AfD leader Alice Weidel spoke of a "huge success". The AfD was the "winner of the evening". The fact that the SPD is ahead is due to a "tactical choice", but one that we have to live with. AfD veteran Alexander Gauland stressed that Germany must remain a "cultural unity". He spoke of a "nice result" but also a "downer" because the SPD is currently ahead. Parliamentary Secretary Bernd Baumann said in the Berlin round on ARD that migration policy was a "burning point" for people. He spoke of 51,000 rapes by refugees since 2015. With regard to the poor economic development, he blamed the CDU and "16 years of Merkel government". AfD top candidate Hans-Christoph Berndt spoke of a "media campaign" against the AfD. "Carrying on as before", as Woidke wants, will not work. The AfD is "the party of the future".
SPD top candidate and Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke spoke of a "hard piece of work". Once again, the Social Democrats had blocked the right-wing extremists' path to power. They had succeeded in preventing Brandenburg from getting a "big brown stamp". According to initial evaluations, the SPD won mainly from non-voters, the Left Party and the Greens.
Bad mood among Left Party, FDP and Greens
Green Party leader Lang said her party had "gotten under the wheels" in the head-to-head race between the AfD and the SPD. However, there is a fundamentally bad trend for her party that they must "fight their way out of". Many people are worried about the AfD's strong election result. Federal Executive Director Emily Büning said that "badmouthing" the situation in Germany only suits Putin. The AfD and BSW are Russia's "henchmen".
The FDP, on the other hand, was very disappointed. "This election campaign was not about Brandenburg, but about federal political issues and tactics," said top candidate Zyon Braun. He also spoke of a strong polarization between the AfD and the Social Democrats. "The price for this is a fight for survival for the smaller parties." General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai blamed the traffic light coalition's politics for the result. He announced an "autumn of decision" in which the problems would have to be solved.
The Left Party is also in a mood of catastrophe. It was a "disastrous evening" for his party, says top candidate Sebastian Walter. "Woidke has shredded us," he accused the Prime Minister. His party will now "start again from the bottom."
AfD wins majority of direct mandates
In the early evening, after more than 80 percent of the votes had been counted, the AfD was ahead in the majority of constituencies. The Greens were unable to win the direct mandate they had hoped for in Potsdam.
Woidke put everything on one card
Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke (SPD) had announced several times during the election campaign that he wanted to end his political career if the AfD became the strongest force. "If the majority of voters vote for the AfD, then I'm gone." CDU challenger Jan Redmann seemed to lack a convincing strategy to counter the 62-year-old prime minister's incumbency bonus - although things are going well for the CDU in the national trend.
Particularly bitter for the CDU: In a double interview with Woidke, his Saxon colleague Michael Kretschmer (CDU) expressed his wish that "we continue to assume responsibility together". Woidke had "done the country a lot of good". The former President of the Bundestag Rita Süssmuth, who is of no importance within the CDU, also spoke out in favour of the head of government who has been in office since 2013.
The fact that Redmann was caught driving an electric scooter while under the influence of alcohol with a blood alcohol level of 1.28 per mille in the summer and had to give up his driving licence for six months may have made him more famous, but probably did not increase his reputation.
Campact supports Potsdam Greens
The left-wing platform Campact, which is co-financed by foreign organizations, also intervened heavily. They gave the Green direct candidate Marie Schäffer in Potsdam a helping hand with 72,000 euros. The direction was clear. "Only with the Greens can we prevent AfD veto power in the next state parliament," says the website of Schäffer, who was directly elected in Potsdam in 2019. Five years later, the issue is the basic mandate clause.
In Brandenburg, winning a direct mandate is enough to overcome the five percent hurdle. If the coup works, the Greens would have three or four representatives in the state parliament. "Highly problematic," said Brandenburg's Culture Minister Manja Schüle (SPD), one of Schäffer's opponents without security on the state list.
AfD could achieve blocking minority
The BSW put labor judge Robert Crumbach in the race. The regional association has not been in existence for four months, but the BSW has no reason to complain about a lack of support. While Wagenknecht draws the main lines of the "peace policy", the ex-Social Democrat with 40 years of SPD experience worked on regional issues such as housing, more police officers, and more teachers.
What is certain so far, however, is that the AfD, whose regional association is classified by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a suspected right-wing extremist case, will remain outside the election regardless of the election result. It cannot be ruled out that the AfD could also influence far-reaching decisions such as constitutional changes in Brandenburg with a blocking minority. In the final phase of the election campaign, the Evangelical Church of Berlin-Brandenburg launched a campaign against the AfD.
Source: Junge Freiheit
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