Copper Hit a Record $14,500 a Tonne. Trump Never Even Signed the Tariff Causing It.

 

 

#Copper#Canada

Copper just hit $14,500 a tonne, an all-time record, up more than 40% in a single year. Part of that is a real technology boom — AI data centers alone could consume 475,000 metric tonnes this year, up from 110,000 the year before. Part of it is something stranger: Trump's own administration has spent the better part of a year refusing to say clearly whether refined copper will face a tariff at all — and that uncertainty alone triggered a stockpiling frenzy so aggressive that American warehouses now hold the highest copper inventories in years.

 

 Economists call it "strategic ambiguity" — never confirming a tariff, never ruling one out. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast by over $1,000/tonne in months. A StoneX analyst admitted there's a real chance no tariff on refined copper ever gets imposed at all. Meanwhile, traders keep pulling metal out of London warehouses into US storage purely to capture a price premium tied to fear of a policy that, as of this recording, doesn't exist. 

 

Canadian copper producers are caught in the same limbo — unable to plan shipments without knowing if a 25% tax lands on them six months from now. 

 

The honest complication: copper is genuinely strategic — the Department of Defense's second most-used material — and the US only has half the smelting capacity it needs relative to what it mines. There's a real national security case for Washington's caution, not just manipulation. 

 

Sources: CSIS, Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg, The Globe and Mail, Canadian Mining Journal, and the International Copper Study Group.

 

 

Source:      The Decision Room